Study misrepresented to claim that COVID-19 vaccines cause autoimmune disease

Conversations also spiked after former President Trump doubled down on his commitment to weakening school vaccine mandates.

Two Nature studies and an anti-vaccine presidential campaign promise have fueled online conversations about vaccines in the last week. One study found a slight increase in the risk of developing a rare autoimmune disease following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, a finding that vaccine opponents have grossly misrepresented. 

A second study found that an existing shingles vaccine may reduce dementia risk in older adults, prompting excitement and conspiracy theories from different corners of the internet. Finally, former President Donald Trump reasserted his commitment to weakening school vaccine mandates, causing a surge of conversation online.

Regionally, a whooping cough outbreak in Kentucky, a possible vaccine shortage in Minnesota, and anti-childhood vaccine rhetoric in the West and Northeast drove discussions.

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What’s trending nationally in vaccine conversation:

On July 23, Nature published a study assessing potential associations between mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and autoimmune diseases in 9 million people. The study concluded that the vaccines don’t increase the risk of any disease except systemic lupus erythematosus, for which the risk was 16 percent higher in vaccinated people. Vaccine opponents are falsely claiming in both English and Spanish that the study proves that the vaccines cause a host of autoimmune diseases, including so-called vaccine-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or “VAIDS.” One popular post claims that the “explosive” study is responsible for a “global surge” in VAIDS, a condition that does not exist and that was not mentioned in the study.

An Oxford study published in Nature Medicine on July 25 reports that the shingles vaccine Shingrix may be associated with a significant reduction in dementia risk. The study found that vaccine recipients had a 17 percent longer time period until a dementia diagnosis, or an additional 164 days, than unvaccinated people. More research is needed to understand the potential link, but many posts expressed excitement over the “meaningful” findings, which they see as a “new hope” in the fight against dementia. Still, some social media users used the study to promote COVID-19 vaccine conspiracy theories and fears about mRNA technology, while others claim they don’t trust any vaccines. Several posts questioned the safety of the shingles vaccine and the credibility of the study.

At recent campaign events, former President Donald Trump reiterated his promise to strip funding from public schools that mandate vaccines or masks. As with previous statements, he did not clarify if he was referring to COVID-19 vaccines or to all vaccines. Many online anti-vaccine advocates took his remarks to encompass any vaccine requirements for school entry. Some users sharing clips from the rallies praised the statements, while others extolled the benefits of childhood vaccination. 

Read the fact checks: 

• Science Feedback: Evidence so far doesn’t indicate an association between COVID-19 vaccines and autoimmune diseases
• The Guardian: Study raises hopes that shingles vaccine may delay onset of dementia
• Nemours KidsHealth: Your Child’s Vaccines (for Parents)

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What’s happening in the Northeast:

A quote from a prominent vaccine opponent’s 2023 testimony before the Pennsylvania State Senate is recirculating online. The quote states that there are almost no chronic illnesses among the Amish community because they are “largely unvaccinated.” A popular post falsely claims that Amish children are “100 percent” unvaccinated. The myth that Amish communities are completely unvaccinated and are unaffected by chronic illness or vaccine-preventable diseases is an anti-vaccine talking point that has been debunked repeatedly.

What’s happening in the South:

Health officials in Kentucky are using a messaging campaign to encourage parents to vaccinate their children against whooping cough before the new school year. Forty-nine cases have been reported in Lexington, and 130 cases have been reported statewide, making the outbreak the largest in the state since 2017. A new partnership and grant aim to increase vaccine access and vaccinate children for free, regardless of insurance status. Some social media users lamented that “there is a vaccine for everything,” discouraged parents from vaccinating, and blamed immigrants for disease outbreaks.

What’s happening in the Midwest:

Minnesota health officials report a potential shortage of pediatric COVID-19 vaccines for young children due to expiring stocks and the late rollout of the updated fall vaccine. The shortage may cause challenges for parents as the new school year approaches. Some social media users responded to the news by mocking parents seeking COVID-19 vaccines, claiming that anyone who vaccinates their child should be jailed. Others questioned why children need the vaccine and claimed the vaccines are ineffective.

What’s happening in the West:

Declining childhood vaccination rates in Arizona have drawn significant local media coverage as data reveals that only a third of schools in the state have enough immunized students to achieve herd immunity. The news has not garnered much attention on social media, but experts are blaming pandemic-related distrust in vaccines, low-income communities’ lack of access to vaccines, and personal beliefs in vaccine exemptions. In 2023, Arizona had one of the highest vaccine exemption rates in the country at 7.4 percent, more than twice the national average of 3 percent.

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Talking points for public health professionals 

Each week the Infodemiology.com team will provide messaging recommendations in response to some of the trending narratives outlined above. These helpful tips can be used when creating content, updating web pages and FAQs, and to inform strategy for messaging about vaccines.

Vaccine opponents are misrepresenting a recent study to advance the false narrative that COVID-19 vaccines cause autoimmune disease. Debunking messaging may explain that the study found a small increase in risk for a single autoimmune disease and either no change in risk or lower risk for several other autoimmune diseases following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. Messaging may also emphasize that the study concluded that the vaccines are not associated with an increased risk of most of the assessed autoimmune diseases and that “further research is needed regarding its potential association with certain conditions.” Highlighting that COVID-19 infection is associated with a 25 percent to 30 percent increased risk of several inflammatory autoimmune diseases is recommended.

A new study finding that shingles vaccination may reduce dementia risk in older adults has been the target of speculation about the safety and necessity of the vaccine. Emphasizing that the study’s results are promising and more research is needed is recommended. Talking points may explain that vaccines are up to 97 percent effective at protecting against shingles in older adults and immunocompromised people, who are at the highest risk from the disease. Debunking messaging may also emphasize that shingles vaccines are rigorously tested and monitored for safety, and serious side effects are extremely rare.  

School vaccine requirements have increasingly become a target of vaccine opponents, especially after recent comments from former President Trump, who vowed to end funding for schools requiring vaccination. Emphasizing the importance of vaccines to protect children and communities against potentially debilitating and life-threatening diseases is recommended, as is highlighting that higher school vaccine exemption rates are linked to devastating outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases. Messaging may also emphasize that decades of research show childhood vaccines to be safe and effective. 

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